BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:00

BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 2

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £77,310

Weather Overcast

Temp 6.2°C

Wind 11mph S

Rain 34%

Winning Time 1m 40.17s (slow by 3.37s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian	15/2	Won
2nd	Blue Rc (IRE) Hector Crouch · James Tate	9/2	1.25
3rd	The Lost King (GB) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	7/2	0.05
4th	Dosman (GB) Jonny Peate · Oli Rix	18/1	.5
5th	Chancellor (GB) Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden	3/1F	.75
6th	Nikovo (GB) Jason Hart · Michael Herrington	28/1	1
7th	Popmaster (IRE) Ashley Lewis · Ed Walker	40/1	1
8th	Flight Plan (GB) Sam James · K R Burke	28/1	0.3
9th	Witch Hunter (FR) Jamie Spencer · Richard Hannon	18/1	.75
10th	Storm Star (GB) Jason Watson · Andrew Balding	12/1	0.3
11th	First Principle (GB) Cieren Fallon · William Haggas	12/1	1.5
12th	Apiarist (IRE) Kevin Stott · Kevin Ryan	22/1	0.05
13th	Shafdar (IRE) Saffie Osborne · Ian Williams	10/1	.5
14th	Rogue Encore (GB) Hollie Doyle · Peter Chapple-Hyam	50/1	3

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (8)	Chancellor Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	138	p	712-12	109	119	106	41d	—	—	0	20.9	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Enjoying a good winter; cheekpieces now added; each-way shout despite top weight
8 (10)	The Lost King Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	126	—	30-121	97	118	93	27d	—	—	0	16.8	0.88/1	7/2 22%
2-3 this year and still improving; 5lb rise shouldn't prevent another big run
5 (13)	Blue Rc Bay J:Hector Crouch T:James Tate	J:Hector Crouch T:James Tate	128	—	1122-1	99	117	97	92d	—	—	+12	26.3	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Won four of his eight starts; Southwell win in January was decisive; still improving
2 (14)	Tyrrhenian Sea Grey J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	135	—	7832-2	106	119	107	55d	—	—	+12	21.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Reliable on AW but suspicion a few of these will have his measure at the weights
14 (4)	Shafdar Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Ian Williams	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ian Williams	114	—	/5-312	85	114	89	22d	—	—	+3	11.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Effectively 5lb higher than when beaten in a Class 4 last month; tough task
7 (6)	Storm Star Chestnut J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	127	—	113-66	98	119	93	55d	—	—	+7	13.7	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Won this last year off 3lb lower; doesn't arrive in the same form this time around
10 (7)	First Principle Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	125	t	812-21	96	117	92	14d	—	—	+7	13.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Good record on AW and successful two weeks ago; looks held by The Lost King though
3 (11)	Witch Hunter Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:Richard Hannon	J:Jamie Spencer T:Richard Hannon	133	—	3-5148	104	120	97	27d	—	—	+11	17.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Two wins and two placed efforts from five Newcastle visits; big run on the cards
12 (12)	Dosman Bay J:Jonny Peate T:Oli Rix	J:Jonny Peate T:Oli Rix	121	—	8-3212	92	117	94	14d	—	—	+7	11.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Back in form for new yard & fine with prevailing conditions; others perhaps better treated
6 (1)	Apiarist Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Kevin Ryan	J:Kevin Stott T:Kevin Ryan	128	—	03-413	99	116	104	16d	—	0W/1P 1 run	+9	13.4	5.50/1	22/1 4%
3rd in this race last year off 2lb lower; arrives in good order and he can't be discounted
9 (5)	Flight Plan Bay J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	125	—	5-6094	96	118	94	35d	—	—	+9	12.5	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Returning to 1m in his favour and he lurks on a dangerous mark; not ruled out at a price
4 (2)	Popmaster Grey J:Ashley Lewis(5) T:Ed Walker	J:Ashley Lewis(5) T:Ed Walker	128	—	-32122	99	116	105	35d	—	—	+26	28.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Arrives in good form but only fifth off this mark in the 2025 renewal; likely vulnerable
11 (9)	Nikovo Bay J:Jason Hart T:Michael Herrington	J:Jason Hart T:Michael Herrington	122	—	7-2331	93	117	78	29d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	+8	11.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Conditions suit & arrives on back of a win; bettering last year's 6th would be a good run
13 (3)	Rogue Encore Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Hollie Doyle T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	114	p	71-509	85	116	108	7d	—	—	+7	9.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
C&D winner in September; unplaced in three runs this year; enough to prove for now

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Chancellor	3/1	3/1	3/1
The Lost King	7/2	7/2	7/2
Blue Rc	5/1	5/1	5/1
Tyrrhenian Sea	17/2	17/2	17/2
Shafdar	9/1	9/1	9/1
Storm Star	12/1	12/1	12/1
First Principle	12/1	12/1	12/1
Witch Hunter	16/1	16/1	14/1
Dosman	18/1	20/1	18/1
Apiarist	22/1	22/1	22/1
Flight Plan	28/1	28/1	28/1
Popmaster	33/1	33/1	33/1
Nikovo	33/1	28/1	28/1
Rogue Encore	40/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Popmaster

28.6

OR: 12.3 Form: 15.6 Odds: 0.8

33/1

2nd

Blue Rc

26.3

OR: 12.3 Form: 10 Odds: 4

5/1

3rd

Tyrrhenian Sea

21.7

OR: 14 Form: 5 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Chancellor

20.9

OR: 14.8 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

3/1

Witch Hunter

17.2

OR: 13.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.6

16/1

The Lost King

16.8

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5

7/2

Storm Star

13.7

OR: 12 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Apiarist

13.4

OR: 12.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

First Principle

13.2

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Flight Plan

12.5

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

28/1

Dosman

11.7

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Nikovo

11.6

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Shafdar

11.1

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Rogue Encore

9.5

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Chancellor	109	119	106
Tyrrhenian Sea	106	119	107
Witch Hunter	104	120	97
Blue Rc	99	117	97
Apiarist	99	116	104
Popmaster	99	116	105
Storm Star	98	119	93
The Lost King	97	118	93
First Principle	96	117	92
Flight Plan	96	118	94
Nikovo	93	117	78
Dosman	92	117	94
Shafdar	85	114	89
Rogue Encore	85	116	108

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rogue Encore	7d ago	Quick return
First Principle	14d ago	Fit
Dosman	14d ago	Fit
Apiarist	16d ago	Fit
Shafdar	22d ago	Fit
The Lost King	27d ago	Fit
Witch Hunter	27d ago	Fit
Nikovo	29d ago	Fit
Flight Plan	35d ago	Fit
Popmaster	35d ago	Fit
Chancellor	41d ago	Fit
Tyrrhenian Sea	55d ago	Fresh
Storm Star	55d ago	Fresh
Blue Rc	92d ago	Long break

Class

Horse	Prev Class	Change
Nikovo	Class Class 3	Class Drop

Compared to each horse's most recent recorded run. 1 drop, 0 rises.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.