Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

20:30

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2024-10-17

Distance 1m3f23y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 2m 25.50s (slow by 6.60s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Caramay (GB) Hollie Doyle · William Muir & Chris Grassick	5/1	Won
2nd	Bay Of Naples (IRE) Tom Eaves · Michael Herrington	15/2	0.3
3rd	Storm Asset (GB) Joanna Mason · Derek Shaw	8/1	1.75
4th	Jimmy Mark (IRE) Kieran O'Neill · Stuart Kittow	8/1	.5
5th	Chagall (IRE) Dylan Hogan · Jack Jones	5/1	0.3
6th	My Brother Mike (IRE) Connor Planas · David Loughnane	9/1	2.75
7th	Bond Spirit (GB) Jonny Peate · Louise Allan	12/1	1.25
8th	Lednikov (GB) Elle-May Croot · Ivan Furtado	9/1	.5
9th	Total Lockdown (GB) Christian Howarth · Alice Haynes	33/1	.5
10th	Olympicus (USA) Tom Marquand · Michael Appleby	4/1F	13
11th	Riffa Fort (GB) William Cox · Clare Ellam	100/1	11

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (3)	Olympicus Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Michael Appleby	J:Tom Marquand T:Michael Appleby	137	h	809598	57	62	56	7d	—	—	-11	7	1.25/1	5/1 17%
No impact in six starts this term, albeit not beaten far on latest; not proven on AW
3 (8)	Caramay Grey J:Hollie Doyle T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Hollie Doyle T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	136	p	-15261	56	69	53	42d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	+4	21	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Carries head bit high but won first and latest starts this term; not proven over this far
6 (4)	Chagall Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	133	—	444880	53	68	63	24d	—	—	-10	5.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
6-41 on AW, with all the wins on Polytrack but he's too far down weights to be ruled out
10 (7)	Lednikov Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	130	p	4-0896	50	64	26	7d	—	—	-7	2.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Won twice here late in 2022; beaten just 2l under Elle-May Croot over C&D last Thursday
11 (10)	Storm Asset Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	128	—	947273	48	69	53	17d	—	—	-1	8	2.50/1	10/1 9%
2024 placings on Tapeta put him into calculations despite his being unraced beyond 1m2f
9 (1)	Bay Of Naples Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	130	tp	940434	50	68	60	20d	—	—	-4	4.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Made the frame at Wolverhampton on last three outings, so has solid each-way claims
2 (6)	My Brother Mike Bay J:Connor Planas(3) T:David Loughnane	J:Connor Planas(3) T:David Loughnane	137	—	137386	57	65	60	32d	—	—	-2	6.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
1m race here in March saw him break a long losing run; needs to better his recent efforts
5 (11)	Jimmy Mark Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Stuart Kittow	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Stuart Kittow	133	—	311658	53	67	-	16d	—	—	-2	8.8	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Close up in his only AW race, last October; unraced beyond 1m2f but needs a second look
8 (5)	Bond Spirit Chestnut J:Jonny Peate T:Louise Allan	J:Jonny Peate T:Louise Allan	130	p	015045	50	69	35	30d	—	—	-4	4.1	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Won twice over 1m4f here in first half of 2023; ran creditably at Bath penultimate start
7 (2)	Total Lockdown Bay J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Alice Haynes	J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Alice Haynes	132	p	835056	52	66	-	9d	—	—	-1	1.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Quirky sort with a 2-34 strike-rate; three runs for new yard and needs to better those
4 (9)	Riffa Fort Bay J:William Cox T:Clare Ellam	J:William Cox T:Clare Ellam	133	—	59870-	53	-	-	432d	—	—	-1	1.2	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Seven-race maiden who's gone downhill, unraced since August 2023; gelded since

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Olympicus	5/1	4/1	4/1	10/3	7/2
Caramay	9/2	9/2	4/1	4/1	7/2
Chagall	9/2	9/2	5/1	9/2	11/2
Lednikov	8/1	17/2	17/2	8/1	17/2
Storm Asset	9/1	9/1	17/2	10/1	10/1
Bay Of Naples	10/1	10/1	9/1	11/1	11/1
My Brother Mike	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	9/1
Jimmy Mark	8/1	6/1	9/1	11/1	14/1
Bond Spirit	9/1	9/1	10/1	9/1	9/1
Total Lockdown	28/1	33/1	33/1	28/1	33/1
Riffa Fort	100/1	80/1	80/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Caramay

OR: 1.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Jimmy Mark

8.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 5 Odds: 3.1

14/1

3rd

Storm Asset

OR: 0 Form: 5.5 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Olympicus

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

5/1

My Brother Mike

6.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Chagall

5.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Bay Of Naples

4.5

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Bond Spirit

4.1

OR: 0 Form: 2 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Lednikov

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Total Lockdown

1.8

OR: 0.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Riffa Fort

1.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Olympicus	57	62	56
My Brother Mike	57	65	60
Caramay	56	69	53
Chagall	53	68	63
Jimmy Mark	53	67	—
Riffa Fort	53	—	—
Total Lockdown	52	66	—
Lednikov	50	64	26
Bay Of Naples	50	68	60
Bond Spirit	50	69	35
Storm Asset	48	69	53

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Olympicus	7d ago	Quick return
Lednikov	7d ago	Quick return
Total Lockdown	9d ago	Quick return
Jimmy Mark	16d ago	Fit
Storm Asset	17d ago	Fit
Bay Of Naples	20d ago	Fit
Chagall	24d ago	Fit
Bond Spirit	30d ago	Fit
My Brother Mike	32d ago	Fit
Caramay	42d ago	Fit
Riffa Fort	432d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Storm Asset	Prominent
Jimmy Mark	Prominent

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 11 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m3f23y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.