Betfred Play Fred's 5 Million Handicap – Newmarket

Newmarket

14:10

Betfred Play Fred's 5 Million Handicap

Date 2023-11-04

Distance 1m

Class Class 3

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £10,800

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (10)	Talis Evolvere Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	132	—	3-41	84	93	81	44d	—	—	+1	14.6	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Very lightly raced 3yo who could evolve into something better than his opening mark
3 (3)	Dashing Roger Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:William Stone	J:Kieran Shoemark T:William Stone	138	—	537571	88	95	81	24d	—	—	+11	23.7	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Bolted up at Nottingham last month and 2-2 on heavy ground; has to be respected
10 (6)	City Of York Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	130	h	5-U111	82	97	67	42d	—	—	-1	11.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Completed hat-trick when winning on heavy ground at Newbury; could have more left in tank
7 (7)	Alpha Crucis Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Gary Moore	J:Kevin Stott T:Gary Moore	132	—	3-1251	84	96	83	20d	—	—	+1	14.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Form figures in soft-ground handicaps read 121 and this 3yo could have more to offer
11 (8)	Prince Of Zenda Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Hugo Palmer	J:Hayley Turner T:Hugo Palmer	129	v	32-291	81	96	76	35d	—	—	0	10.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Well served by soft going and this lightly raced 3yo is a possible with conditions to suit
1 (5)	Metal Merchant Bay J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	139	—	035621	91	96	83	29d	—	—	+18	26.7	2.00/1	9 11%
Runner-up to City Of York at Newbury then won at Ascot; could again be thereabouts
9 (14)	King's Code Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Evans	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Evans	131	—	171311	83	95	83	12d	—	—	+23	32.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
3yo who is 3-4 for this yard and clearly thriving; won on heavy ground two starts ago
14 (1)	Dream Pirate Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:T J Kent	J:Marco Ghiani T:T J Kent	120	b	064112	72	96	79	19d	—	—	+17	24.6	2.50/1	11 9%
In fine form since these blinkers went on; up in grade here but could still be improving
12 (12)	Magic Memories Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary Moore	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary Moore	128	t	493241	80	95	86	16d	—	—	+17	22.3	4.25/1	18 6%
Won at Brighton in second handicap; further improvement needed but may well be forthcoming
6 (9)	Carolus Magnus Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	132	t	695996	82	95	69	21d	—	—	+4	9.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Has edged down the weights but he may not want testing ground
4 (11)	Raising Sand Bay J:Nicola Currie T:Jamie Osborne	J:Nicola Currie T:Jamie Osborne	134	p	-64095	84	96	67	29d	—	—	+6	9.6	5.25/1	22 5%
On a dangerous mark but this 11yo has been soundly beaten on his last three starts
8 (13)	Spirit Genie Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jennie Candlish	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jennie Candlish	131	tp	7-6881	83	89	77	18d	—	—	+6	9.2	6.75/1	28 4%
Easily won Leicester seller last month and he's well treated on best Irish handicap form
13 (2)	Achillea Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Dean Ivory	J:Robert Havlin T:Dean Ivory	122	—	303199	74	94	76	58d	—	—	+9	13	9.75/1	40 3%
Won at Yarmouth (1m, good to soft) in July but hasn't shone since; others more compelling
2 (4)	One Night Thunder Chestnut J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Gemma Tutty	J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Gemma Tutty	138	—	1325	90	93	62	138d	—	—	+16	18.6	12.25/1	50 2%
Lightly raced 3yo; new yard is in good form but improvement is needed off current mark

Horse	bet365	Coral
Talis Evolvere	5	9/2
Dashing Roger	13/2	11/2
City Of York	11/2	6
Alpha Crucis	6	11/2
Prince Of Zenda	15/2	8
Metal Merchant	9	9
King's Code	7	17/2
Dream Pirate	9	11
Magic Memories	18	18
Carolus Magnus	16	16
Raising Sand	20	22
Spirit Genie	25	28
Achillea	40	40
One Night Thunder	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

King's Code

32.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 21.5 Odds: 2.7

17/2

2nd

Metal Merchant

26.7

OR: 10.3 Form: 14.1 Odds: 2.4

3rd

Dream Pirate

24.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 17 Odds: 2.1

Dashing Roger

23.7

OR: 9.5 Form: 10.6 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Magic Memories

22.3

OR: 7.5 Form: 13.4 Odds: 1.4

One Night Thunder

18.6

OR: 10 Form: 8 Odds: 0.6

Talis Evolvere

14.6

OR: 8.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 4

9/2

Alpha Crucis

14.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Achillea

OR: 6 Form: 5.9 Odds: 1.1

City Of York

11.6

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Prince Of Zenda

10.6

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Carolus Magnus

9.6

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Raising Sand

9.6

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Spirit Genie

9.2

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Metal Merchant	91	96	83
One Night Thunder	90	93	62
Dashing Roger	88	95	81
Talis Evolvere	84	93	81
Alpha Crucis	84	96	83
Raising Sand	84	96	67
King's Code	83	95	83
Spirit Genie	83	89	77
City Of York	82	97	67
Carolus Magnus	82	95	69
Prince Of Zenda	81	96	76
Magic Memories	80	95	86
Achillea	74	94	76
Dream Pirate	72	96	79

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
King's Code	12d ago	Quick return
Magic Memories	16d ago	Fit
Spirit Genie	18d ago	Fit
Dream Pirate	19d ago	Fit
Alpha Crucis	20d ago	Fit
Carolus Magnus	21d ago	Fit
Dashing Roger	24d ago	Fit
Metal Merchant	29d ago	Fit
Raising Sand	29d ago	Fit
Prince Of Zenda	35d ago	Fit
City Of York	42d ago	Fit
Talis Evolvere	44d ago	Fit
Achillea	58d ago	Fresh
One Night Thunder	138d ago	Long break