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Kempton (AW)

19:12

Date 2024-05-29

Distance 6f

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,757

Winning Time 1m 11.50s (slow by 0.40s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Change Sings (IRE) George Downing · Eve Johnson Houghton	3/1F	Won
2nd	Tyger Bay (GB) Joe Leavy · Conrad Allen	7/1	0.3
3rd	Glamorous Express (IRE) Jack Doughty · Tony Carroll	18/1	1.5
4th	Holy Fire (GB) Callum Shepherd · Charlie Fellowes	5/1	0.2
5th	Atalanta's Boy (GB) Aidan Keeley · Andy Irvine	100/1	1
6th	One More Wave (GB) Rob Hornby · Jonathan Portman	100/30	2.5
7th	Hierarchy (IRE) Saffie Osborne · Jamie Osborne	11/2	.5
8th	Walking On Clouds (IRE) Liam Keniry · John Butler	80/1	.5
9th	Capote's Dream (IRE) Sean Levey · Tom Ward	14/1	1
10th	Buraback (IRE) Silvestre De Sousa · Derek Shaw	12/1	.75
11th	Ayr Harbour (GB) Tom Marquand · Michael Appleby	22/1	3

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (10)	One More Wave Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	123	—	-21427	73	99	87	18d	—	—	-1	19	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Three sound handicap runs since his AW maiden win; others stronger for the win though
2 (8)	Change Sings Bay J:George Downing T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:George Downing T:Eve Johnson Houghton	134	—	115-61	84	100	83	11d	—	—	-5	14.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Progressive; tactical advantage at Newmarket latest but still won well; can do better
4 (3)	Hierarchy Chestnut J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	132	tp	4138-6	82	99	80	11d	—	—	-2	12	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Promising return at Newmarket 11 days ago; Group 3-placed over C&D as a 2yo; chance
3 (2)	Holy Fire Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	133	v	2-772P	83	98	90	25d	—	—	+3	15.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Good record over C&D but pulled up on turf latest; needs a career-best to win
5 (1)	Tyger Bay Bay J:Joe Leavy(5) T:Conrad Allen	J:Joe Leavy(5) T:Conrad Allen	130	tb	245311	80	101	75	31d	—	—	+19	28.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Four-time C&D winner; comes here on a hat-trick after two soft-ground turf wins; respected
7 (6)	Capote's Dream Brown J:Sean Levey T:Tom Ward	J:Sean Levey T:Tom Ward	129	tp	296-20	79	97	-	18d	—	—	+1	9.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
2-time C&D winner; not at best at Ascot last time but he's the type to bounce back quickly
11 (4)	Buraback Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Derek Shaw	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Derek Shaw	118	p	211311	68	98	84	32d	—	—	+23	29.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Thrived for cheekpieces & a drop in trip, winning 4 of his last 5 starts; this is tougher
10 (7)	Glamorous Express Bay J:Jack Doughty(7) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(7) T:Tony Carroll	121	t	621158	71	96	77	23d	—	—	+10	15.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Conditions to suit but could prove vulnerable at this level
1 (9)	Ayr Harbour Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Michael Appleby	J:Tom Marquand T:Michael Appleby	135	—	5/600-	85	92	-	467d	—	—	+5	10.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Smart in his prime; absent for 467 days; remains to be seen how much ability retains
8 (11)	Walking On Clouds Bay J:Liam Keniry T:John Butler	J:Liam Keniry T:John Butler	123	—	96-866	73	99	79	83d	—	—	+4	6.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
On a dangerous mark but not at his best when last seen; drawn widest too
6 (5)	Atalanta's Boy Bay J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Andy Irvine	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Andy Irvine	130	—	/8750/	80	94	-	626d	—	—	+6	8.1	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Absent for 626 days and looks best watched on stable debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
One More Wave	10/3	10/3	3/1	10/3	3/1
Change Sings	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3	10/3
Hierarchy	9/2	5/1	9/2	5/1	5/1
Holy Fire	15/2	7/1	13/2	7/1	7/1
Tyger Bay	8/1	15/2	7/1	15/2	7/1
Capote's Dream	10/1	11/1	10/1	11/1	11/1
Buraback	12/1	14/1	16/1	14/1	12/1
Glamorous Express	12/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	16/1
Ayr Harbour	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Walking On Clouds	66/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Atalanta's Boy	80/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Buraback

29.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 23.5 Odds: 1.9

16/1

2nd

Tyger Bay

28.9

OR: 7.5 Form: 18.5 Odds: 2.9

8/1

3rd

One More Wave

OR: 5.8 Form: 7.5 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Glamorous Express

15.9

OR: 5.3 Form: 9 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Holy Fire

15.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.6

15/2

Change Sings

14.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Hierarchy

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

5/1

Ayr Harbour

10.4

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Capote's Dream

9.5

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Atalanta's Boy

8.1

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

80/1

Walking On Clouds

6.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ayr Harbour	85	92	—
Change Sings	84	100	83
Holy Fire	83	98	90
Hierarchy	82	99	80
Tyger Bay	80	101	75
Atalanta's Boy	80	94	—
Capote's Dream	79	97	—
One More Wave	73	99	87
Walking On Clouds	73	99	79
Glamorous Express	71	96	77
Buraback	68	98	84

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Change Sings	11d ago	Quick return
Hierarchy	11d ago	Quick return
One More Wave	18d ago	Fit
Capote's Dream	18d ago	Fit
Glamorous Express	23d ago	Fit
Holy Fire	25d ago	Fit
Tyger Bay	31d ago	Fit
Buraback	32d ago	Fit
Walking On Clouds	83d ago	Fresh
Ayr Harbour	467d ago	Long break
Atalanta's Boy	626d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.