BetMGM Handicap – Ascot · The Final Fence

Ascot

16:30

BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-10-04

Distance 6f

Class Class 2

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £23,193

Winning Time 1m 15.54s (slow by 3.04s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Holkham Bay (GB) Oisin Murphy · William Knight	4/1	Won
2nd	Garfield Shadow (IRE) Oisin Orr · Richard Fahey	17/2	0.1
3rd	Ferrous (IRE) Tom Marquand · Jack Channon	14/1	1.25
4th	Wodao (FR) William Carver · Jamie Osborne	66/1	1.75
5th	Commanche Falls (GB) Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	11/1	0.3
6th	Baradar (IRE) Rossa Ryan · George Boughey	10/1	0.1
7th	Palmar Bay (FR) Edward Greatrex · Ralph Beckett	14/1	0.05
8th	Rohaan (IRE) Tom Queally · David Evans	4/1	1.25
9th	Wobwobwob (IRE) Amie Waugh · Adrian Paul Keatley	14/1	.75
10th	Never So Brave (IRE) Ryan Moore · Sir Michael Stoute	11/4F	0.3

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (8)	Never So Brave Bay J:Ryan Moore T:Sir Michael Stoute	J:Ryan Moore T:Sir Michael Stoute	133	—	-11672	101	114	98	43d	—	—	+9	28.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
3yo with two wins this year (7f/7.5f); could be suited by sprinting
4 (1)	Rohaan Bay J:Tom Queally T:David Evans	J:Tom Queally T:David Evans	127	—	808030	94	120	105	13d	—	—	+1	18.1	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Inconsistent this year but has a good record here and won this race last season
3 (4)	Holkham Bay Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:William Knight	J:Oisin Murphy T:William Knight	128	—	221107	95	116	93	20d	—	—	+9	24.7	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Close seventh in the Portland; needs bigger run today but he excelled here in August
5 (6)	Baradar b/br J:Rossa Ryan T:George Boughey	J:Rossa Ryan T:George Boughey	127	tb	707074	94	118	77	6d	—	—	+3	14.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Close fourth in these blinkers at Ripon last Saturday and may be able to build on that
8 (2)	Garfield Shadow Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	125	—	140133	93	114	105	20d	—	—	+14	23.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Won at Chester in July and close 3rd the next twice; this 3yo may still have more to offer
1 (9)	Commanche Falls Brown J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	139	p	256346	106	117	95	13d	—	—	+10	17.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Creditable sixth of 25 in the Ayr Gold Cup a fortnight ago and could be in the mix
9 (7)	Wobwobwob Bay J:Amie Waugh(3) T:Adrian Paul Keatley	J:Amie Waugh(3) T:Adrian Paul Keatley	121	v	100657	88	115	106	6d	—	—	+5	11.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Soundly beaten at Haydock last Saturday but on a competitive mark and not discounted
6 (3)	Ferrous Grey J:Tom Marquand T:Jack Channon	J:Tom Marquand T:Jack Channon	127	—	113005	94	116	103	27d	—	—	+9	15.8	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Back to form with AW fifth last month (denied a clear run) and might not be far away
10 (10)	Palmar Bay Bay J:Edward Greatrex T:Ralph Beckett	J:Edward Greatrex T:Ralph Beckett	119	—	3-9610	87	114	82	53d	—	—	+8	12.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Flopped in August last time but won prior to that and this 3yo retains potential
7 (5)	Wodao Chestnut J:William Carver(3) T:Jamie Osborne	J:William Carver(3) T:Jamie Osborne	126	t	97-830	93	115	101	20d	—	—	+9	11.3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Well beaten in the Portland but showed spark previously; well served by testing ground

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Never So Brave	10/3	10/3	10/3	3/1	7/2
Rohaan	7/2	4/1	7/2	7/2	7/2
Holkham Bay	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	5/1
Baradar	15/2	7/1	7/1	15/2	7/1
Garfield Shadow	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	10/1
Commanche Falls	12/1	10/1	11/1	10/1	10/1
Wobwobwob	12/1	12/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Ferrous	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Palmar Bay	20/1	18/1	20/1	18/1	18/1
Wodao	50/1	40/1	50/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Never So Brave

28.5

OR: 12.8 Form: 10 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Holkham Bay

24.7

OR: 11.3 Form: 9 Odds: 4.4

5/1

3rd

Garfield Shadow

23.4

OR: 10.8 Form: 10.1 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Rohaan

18.1

OR: 11 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5

4/1

Commanche Falls

17.6

OR: 14 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Ferrous

15.8

OR: 11 Form: 2.9 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Baradar

14.3

OR: 11 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Palmar Bay

12.7

OR: 9.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Wobwobwob

11.4

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Wodao

11.3

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Commanche Falls	106	117	95
Never So Brave	101	114	98
Holkham Bay	95	116	93
Rohaan	94	120	105
Baradar	94	118	77
Ferrous	94	116	103
Garfield Shadow	93	114	105
Wodao	93	115	101
Wobwobwob	88	115	106
Palmar Bay	87	114	82

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Baradar	6d ago	Quick return
Wobwobwob	6d ago	Quick return
Rohaan	13d ago	Quick return
Commanche Falls	13d ago	Quick return
Holkham Bay	20d ago	Fit
Garfield Shadow	20d ago	Fit
Wodao	20d ago	Fit
Ferrous	27d ago	Fit
Never So Brave	43d ago	Fit
Palmar Bay	53d ago	Fresh