Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B/C/D, No More Than 3 Runs) (GBB)

Newcastle (AW)

17:25

Date 2024-10-22

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,211

Winning Time 1m 28.45s (slow by 4.65s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Happy To Fly (GER) Jason Hart · Charlie Johnston	40/1	Won
2nd	Miss Yorkshire (FR) Joanna Mason · Gemma Tutty	14/1	1.25
3rd	Jamaican Storm (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Bryan Smart	25/1	0.3
4th	Sapphire Valley (IRE) Billy Loughnane · George Boughey	11/8F	.5
5th	Everyoneknowsadave (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Amy Murphy	7/1	2
6th	Shamador (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Archie Watson	5/1	.75
7th	Velvet Whisper (IRE) P J McDonald · Edward Bethell	9/4	0.1
8th	Precious Spartan (IRE) Rowan Scott · Nigel Tinkler	250/1	4.25
9th	Get Up Everybody (IRE) David Nolan · Paul Midgley	150/1	1.75
10th	Jackchester (GB) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	80/1	3.75
11th	Andalseeyagraham (IRE) Alex Jary · Nigel Tinkler	300/1	19
12th	Launceston (IRE) Rhys Clutterbuck · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	200/1	2.75

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
11 (3)	Velvet Whisper Bay J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	123	—	2	-	90	60	12d	—	—	-19	16.1	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Shaped well when strong-travelling debut second at Southwell; big shout for in-form yard
2 (5)	Sapphire Valley Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	133	—	14	82	86	72	24d	—	—	-3	22.6	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Winning debut at Wolverhampton before a solid Chlemsford fourth; strong form claims
7 (10)	Shamador Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	128	—	27	-	89	55	24d	—	—	-8	7.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
C&D debut second but odds-on seventh at Chelmsford since; may still do better
1 (6)	Everyoneknowsadave Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Amy Murphy	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Amy Murphy	133	—	661	73	78	66	17d	—	—	+8	18.8	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Off the mark in 7f Wolver maiden 17 days ago; he may do better still so needs considering
12 (4)	Miss Yorkshire Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Gemma Tutty	J:Joanna Mason T:Gemma Tutty	121	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
This daughter of Johnny Barnes is interesting, especially if market vibes are positive
4 (9)	Jamaican Storm Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	0W/1P 1 run	-2	0.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Havana Grey gelding; respected newcomer who is worth a market check
10 (12)	Happy To Fly Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	125	—	9	-	62	33	17d	—	—	-1	0.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Green when ninth at Southwell on her debut; daughter of Pinatubo can take a step forward
8 (7)	Jackchester Bay J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Ribchester gelding is a half-brother to six winners; market can guide
6 (11)	Get Up Everybody Bay J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	31.25/1	125/1 1%
Invincible Army colt; appeals on paper but the market can prove an accurate guide
5 (8)	Launceston Chestnut J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	130	—	056	-	49	37	27d	—	—	0	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Brought along very steadily; looks one for middle-distance handicaps in the longer term
9 (1)	Precious Spartan Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	126	—	08	-	76	42	7d	—	—	0	0.1	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Son of Magna Grecia has offered little in a novices at Redcar (7f) and C&D this month
3 (2)	Andalseeyagraham Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	130	—	09	-	33	-	13d	—	—	0	0.2	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Cut little ice in a novices at Beverley/Nottingham this autumn; plenty more is required

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Velvet Whisper	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8
Sapphire Valley	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Shamador	11/2	5/1	11/2	11/2	11/2
Everyoneknowsadave	7/1	13/2	7/1	7/1	13/2
Miss Yorkshire	11/1	11/1	11/1	12/1	10/1
Jamaican Storm	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Happy To Fly	80/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1
Jackchester	100/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	66/1
Get Up Everybody	125/1	100/1	100/1	80/1	66/1
Launceston	200/1	150/1	150/1	150/1	150/1
Precious Spartan	200/1	150/1	150/1	150/1	150/1
Andalseeyagraham	250/1	200/1	200/1	200/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sapphire Valley

22.6

OR: 8 Form: 7 Odds: 7.6

9/4

2nd

Everyoneknowsadave

18.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 10 Odds: 3.1

7/1

3rd

Velvet Whisper

16.1

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 11.1

11/8

Shamador

7.9

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Miss Yorkshire

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

12/1

Jamaican Storm

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Happy To Fly

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Jackchester

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Get Up Everybody

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

125/1

Launceston

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Andalseeyagraham

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250/1

Precious Spartan

0.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.1

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sapphire Valley	82	86	72
Everyoneknowsadave	73	78	66
Velvet Whisper	—	90	60
Shamador	—	89	55
Miss Yorkshire	—	—	—
Jamaican Storm	—	—	—
Happy To Fly	—	62	33
Jackchester	—	—	—
Get Up Everybody	—	—	—
Launceston	—	49	37
Precious Spartan	—	76	42
Andalseeyagraham	—	33	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Precious Spartan	7d ago	Quick return
Velvet Whisper	12d ago	Quick return
Andalseeyagraham	13d ago	Quick return
Everyoneknowsadave	17d ago	Fit
Happy To Fly	17d ago	Fit
Sapphire Valley	24d ago	Fit
Shamador	24d ago	Fit
Launceston	27d ago	Fit
Miss Yorkshire	—	—
Jamaican Storm	—	—
Jackchester	—	—
Get Up Everybody	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.