Sky Sports Racing Virgin 535 Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Southwell

15:53

Date 2024-10-23

Distance 1m7f182y

Class Class 4

Going Good

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,629

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4	Bellas Bridge Bay J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	154	t	1/315-	-	-	-	228d	—	—	-15	17	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Ludlow bumper winner; hurdle winners in family - may prefer further; tongue-tied; player.
3	Asian Star Bay J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	154	—	F5-33	-	102	50	33d	—	—	-14	5.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Fared okay, without excelling, on last month's hurdles debut at Newton Abbot (2m1f, good).
2	Mary Bay J:Charlie Todd T:Ian Williams	J:Charlie Todd T:Ian Williams	161	t	9P412F	108	113	104	26d	—	—	+4	28.6	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Progressive since winning at Stratford (2m, gd/fm) in August; unlucky over fences latest.
1	Hola Hermosa Chestnut J:Jonathan Burke T:Fergal O'Brien	J:Jonathan Burke T:Fergal O'Brien	161	—	0-3513	101	105	60	13d	—	—	+8	14.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Carries a 7lb penalty for her summer Worcester win (2m, good); fair third at Exeter since.
NR	Irish Chorus Black J:TBC T:Alan King	J: T:Alan King	154	—	/705-2	-	111	93	170d	—	—	-1	7.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
No match for odds-on favourite at Warwick (2m mares mdn) in May; stable pick for T. Cannon
9	Rockola Grey J:Tom Bellamy T:Alan King	J:Tom Bellamy T:Alan King	153	—	33U2-	-	95	89	197d	—	—	+2	8	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Unable to justify favouritism at Hereford (2m, soft) in April; stablemate of Irish Chorus.
6	Red Panda Bay J:Lilly Pinchin T:Charlie Longsdon	J:Lilly Pinchin T:Charlie Longsdon	154	h	06-3	-	99	59	170d	—	—	+1	3.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Some encouragement drawn from opening attempt over hurdles at Warwick (2m; third) in May.
8	Lady Buttercup Bay J:Brian Hughes T:Donald McCain	J:Brian Hughes T:Donald McCain	153	—	99-1	-	-	-	29d	—	—	+7	11.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Made all at Warwick (2m, mares' bumper; 22-1) recently; Brian Hughes on for hurdles debut.
10	Simply Belle Bay J:Richard Patrick T:David Dennis	J:Richard Patrick T:David Dennis	153	—	33765-	-	87	71	197d	—	—	0	1.9	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Failed to kick on positively since switching to hurdles (0-2); rates as unlikely candidate
7	Ava's Angel Bay J:Tom Midgley(3) T:Sam England	J:Tom Midgley(3) T:Sam England	153	—	397	-	-	-	122d	—	—	0	1.9	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Placed on Hexham debut (2m bumper) in May; failed to build on that since; hurdles debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Bellas Bridge	7/4	15/8	7/4	7/4	15/8
Asian Star	10/3	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Mary	11/4	11/4	5/2	5/2	11/4
Hola Hermosa	12/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Irish Chorus	11/1	10/1	9/1	9/1	10/1
Rockola	16/1	18/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
Red Panda	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Lady Buttercup	20/1	25/1	22/1	25/1	25/1
Simply Belle	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1
Ava's Angel	150/1	66/1	80/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mary

28.6

OR: 14.5 Form: 6.7 Odds: 7.4

11/4

2nd

Bellas Bridge

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 10

15/8

3rd

Hola Hermosa

14.7

OR: 12.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Lady Buttercup

11.1

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Rockola

OR: 0 Form: 6.4 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Irish Chorus

7.4

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Asian Star

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Red Panda

3.8

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Simply Belle

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.4

66/1

Ava's Angel

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.4

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mary	108	113	104
Hola Hermosa	101	105	60
Bellas Bridge	—	—	—
Asian Star	—	102	50
Irish Chorus	—	111	93
Rockola	—	95	89
Red Panda	—	99	59
Lady Buttercup	—	—	—
Simply Belle	—	87	71
Ava's Angel	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Hola Hermosa	13d ago	Quick return
Mary	26d ago	Fit
Lady Buttercup	29d ago	Fit
Asian Star	33d ago	Fit
Ava's Angel	122d ago	Long break
Irish Chorus	170d ago	Long break
Red Panda	170d ago	Long break
Rockola	197d ago	Long break
Simply Belle	197d ago	Long break
Bellas Bridge	228d ago	Long break