Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (Bands C/D, No More Than 3 Runs) (GBB)

Southwell (AW)

18:00

Date 2024-10-24

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,402

Winning Time 1m 42.92s (slow by 5.22s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Flagon Dry (IRE) Edward Greatrex · Warren Greatrex	11/2	Won
2nd	Bulletin (IRE) Joe Leavy · Jonathan Portman	9/2	0.2
3rd	Perfect Life (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Marco Botti	12/1	3.75
4th	Rogue Identity (GB) Luke Morris · Peter Chapple-Hyam	3/1F	1
5th	Epimeteo (GB) P J McDonald · Marco Botti	100/30	.5
6th	Yamarhaba Malayeen (IRE) Jason Watson · Andrew Balding	17/2	0.1
7th	West Wickham (GB) Daniel Muscutt · George Scott	28/1	.5
8th	Mdawi (IRE) Silvestre De Sousa · Charlie Johnston	15/2	2
9th	What A Nation (GB) Kieran O'Neill · Alice Haynes	50/1	1.25
10th	Eager Puccini (GB) Frederick Larson · Julia Feilden	125/1	1.5
11th	Highland George (IRE) Jack Garritty · Liam Bailey	200/1	7.5
12th	Ribbit (GB) Lewis Edmunds · Lisa Williamson	200/1	16

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (10)	Epimeteo Bay J:P J McDonald T:Marco Botti	J:P J McDonald T:Marco Botti	131	—	3	-	78	-	16d	—	—	-12	9.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Shaped well when third at Brighton 16 days ago (1m, good to soft); leading claims
3 (8)	Rogue Identity Bay J:Luke Morris T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Luke Morris T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-15	6.2	1.00/1	4/1 20%
20,000gns yearling; dam a 1m2f Group 3 winner in France; market should be revealing
6 (4)	Bulletin Bay J:Joe Leavy(3) T:Jonathan Portman	J:Joe Leavy(3) T:Jonathan Portman	131	—	4	-	75	63	19d	—	—	-13	5.2	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Stayed on late when 4th at Wolverhampton 18 days ago; open to improvement; contender
9 (1)	Flagon Dry Bay J:Edward Greatrex T:Warren Greatrex	J:Edward Greatrex T:Warren Greatrex	131	—	52	-	76	59	19d	—	—	-5	9	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Two encouraging 7f runs at Wolverhampton; looks ready for a mile; leading contender
1 (9)	Mdawi Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Charlie Johnston	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Charlie Johnston	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-9	3.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
22,000gns breeze-up 2yo; fine pedigree so purchase price raises an eyebrow
2 (3)	Perfect Life Grey J:Hollie Doyle T:Marco Botti	J:Hollie Doyle T:Marco Botti	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.2	2.50/1	10/1 9%
25,000gns breeze-up 2yo; half-brother to two minor winners; yard also run Epimeteo
5 (11)	Yamarhaba Malayeen Bay J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
32,000gns breeze-up 2yo; half-brother to two winners out of an AW winner; market to guide
4 (5)	West Wickham Roan J:Daniel Muscutt T:George Scott	J:Daniel Muscutt T:George Scott	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Only minor appeal on paper but yard's 2yos operating at a healthy strike-rate in 2024
11 (12)	What A Nation Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	131	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Half-brother to two fair winners; others bring more compelling paper claims
7 (2)	Eager Puccini Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Julia Feilden	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Julia Feilden	131	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
13,000gns half-brother to two AW winners; apprentice-ridden on debut; longer-term prospect
10 (6)	Highland George Bay J:Jack Garritty T:Liam Bailey	J:Jack Garritty T:Liam Bailey	131	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
5,000euros half-brother to a Group 2 winner in Italy; perhaps one for the longer term
12 (7)	Ribbit Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Lisa Williamson	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Lisa Williamson	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	0	0.2	100.00/1	400/1 0%
9,000gns half-sister to three winners; yard not renowned for 2yo success

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Epimeteo	10/3	10/3	16/5	3/1	3/1
Rogue Identity	7/2	4/1	4/1	7/2	11/4
Bulletin	4/1	4/1	4/1	5/1	5/1
Flagon Dry	6/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1
Mdawi	13/2	13/2	13/2	6/1	6/1
Perfect Life	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Yamarhaba Malayeen	11/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2
West Wickham	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	25/1
What A Nation	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1
Eager Puccini	200/1	100/1	100/1	80/1	80/1
Highland George	200/1	150/1	125/1	80/1	80/1
Ribbit	400/1	200/1	200/1	125/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Epimeteo

9.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 6.2

10/3

2nd

Flagon Dry

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 4

6/1

3rd

Rogue Identity

6.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

4/1

Bulletin

5.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

5/1

Mdawi

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Yamarhaba Malayeen

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Perfect Life

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

10/1

West Wickham

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

What A Nation

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Eager Puccini

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Highland George

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Ribbit

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

400/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Epimeteo	—	78	—
Rogue Identity	—	—	—
Bulletin	—	75	63
Flagon Dry	—	76	59
Mdawi	—	—	—
Perfect Life	—	—	—
Yamarhaba Malayeen	—	—	—
West Wickham	—	—	—
What A Nation	—	—	—
Eager Puccini	—	—	—
Highland George	—	—	—
Ribbit	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Epimeteo	16d ago	Fit
Bulletin	19d ago	Fit
Flagon Dry	19d ago	Fit
Rogue Identity	—	—
Mdawi	—	—
Perfect Life	—	—
Yamarhaba Malayeen	—	—
West Wickham	—	—
What A Nation	—	—
Eager Puccini	—	—
Highland George	—	—
Ribbit	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.