Newcastle (AW)

18:00

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap

Date 2024-11-11
Distance 1m5y
Class Class 4
Going Standard
Type Flat
Surface AW
Age Band 3yo+
Prize £4,972

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)
# Silk Horse Jockey / Trainer Wt Gear Form OR RPR TS Last Crs Dst Val Scr EW Odds
6 (8)
Rogue Encore
Bay
J:Luke Morris
T:Peter Chapple-Hyam
J:Luke Morris
T:Peter Chapple-Hyam
134 p 353961
80
90
84
10d +1
25.7
0.69/1
11/4
27%
Off the mark here latest (first-time cheekpieces) off 3lb lower; fair chance of follow-up
8 (10)
Savvy Exchange
Bay
J:Robert Havlin
T:S Woods
J:Robert Havlin
T:S Woods
130 v 157297
76
93
58
21d -5
14.7
0.83/1
10/3
23%
Mixed bag since handicapping; a lot will hinge on how he responds to first-time headgear
4 (3)
The Cookstown Cafu
Bay
J:David Nolan
T:David O'Meara
J:David Nolan
T:David O'Meara
134 p 591410
78
90
77
16d +6
21.4
1.38/1
11/2
15%
Lesser turf run latest when soft going wouldn't have posed a problem; has to bounce back
3 (6)
Titian
Bay
J:Ryan Sexton
T:Julie Camacho
J:Ryan Sexton
T:Julie Camacho
136 -04194
80
93
-
14d +6
15
2.13/1
17/2
11%
Does well in the autumn; returns to Tapeta on a workable mark and is one to consider
5 (2)
Bellarchi
Chestnut
J:Sam James
T:Grant Tuer
J:Sam James
T:Grant Tuer
134 507797
80
93
-
19d +1
10.2
2.00/1
8/1
11%
Currently 1-1 on Tapeta; offered a bit more last time and no shock were she to pop up
1 (9)
The African Queen
Chestnut
J:Billy Loughnane
T:Charlie Johnston
J:Billy Loughnane
T:Charlie Johnston
137 931-17
83
87
24
186d +2
10.6
2.25/1
9/1
10%
Six-month layoff looks a bonus if anything and she's 1-1 on Tapeta; goes on the shotlist
7 (5)
Star Zinc
Bay
J:Kaiya Fraser(3)
T:Rebecca Menzies
J:Kaiya Fraser(3)
T:Rebecca Menzies
130 7300RR
74
92
73
39d +1
7.7
3.50/1
14/1
7%
Quite capable off this mark if in the mood but comes with obvious risks attached
2 (1)
Mudamer
Grey
J:David Allan
T:Geoffrey Harker
J:David Allan
T:Geoffrey Harker
136 -60037
80
90
-
59d +6
10.8
5.50/1
22/1
4%
Ex-Irish gelding whose three wins all came in the summer months; others are stronger
9 (4)
Alreet Cha
Bay
J:Tom Eaves
T:Craig Lidster
J:Tom Eaves
T:Craig Lidster
125 p 447017
71
88
58
10d +9
13.6
5.00/1
20/1
5%
No obvious excuse back in a handicap latest; has to improve for stiffest test to date
10 (7)
Deauville
Bay
J:Andrew Mullen
T:Iain Jardine
J:Andrew Mullen
T:Iain Jardine
123 014-38
67
89
-
13d +4
4.5
31.25/1
125/1
1%
No better here latest (1m2f); would be a surprise winner dropping down in distance again
Horse bet365 William Hill Boyle Sports Ladbrokes Unibet
Rogue Encore
11/4 11/4 11/4 5/2 9/4
Savvy Exchange
10/3 10/3 16/5 3/1 10/3
The Cookstown Cafu
11/2 5/1 5/1 11/2 11/2
Titian
8/1 17/2 8/1 8/1 17/2
Bellarchi
8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 15/2
The African Queen
9/1 9/1 9/1 17/2 8/1
Star Zinc
14/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 11/1
Mudamer
20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 22/1
Alreet Cha
20/1 18/1 20/1 20/1 18/1
Deauville
125/1 100/1 125/1 80/1 80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st Rogue Encore
25.7
OR: 7.5 Form: 10.9 Odds: 7.3
11/4
2nd The Cookstown Cafu
21.4
OR: 7 Form: 10 Odds: 4.4
11/2
3rd Titian
15
OR: 7.5 Form: 5 Odds: 2.5
17/2
4 Savvy Exchange
14.7
OR: 6.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 5.7
10/3
5 Alreet Cha
13.6
OR: 5.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1.4
20/1
6 Mudamer
10.8
OR: 7.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.2
22/1
7 The African Queen
10.6
OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4
9/1
8 Bellarchi
10.2
OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7
8/1
9 Star Zinc
7.7
OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7
14/1
10 Deauville
4.5
OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2
125/1

Ratings

HorseORRPRTS
The African Queen
83
87
24
Rogue Encore
80
90
84
Titian
80
93
Bellarchi
80
93
Mudamer
80
90
The Cookstown Cafu
78
90
77
Savvy Exchange
76
93
58
Star Zinc
74
92
73
Alreet Cha
71
88
58
Deauville
67
89

Last Run

HorseLast RunStatus
Rogue Encore 10d ago Quick return
Alreet Cha 10d ago Quick return
Deauville 13d ago Quick return
Titian 14d ago Fit
The Cookstown Cafu 16d ago Fit
Bellarchi 19d ago Fit
Savvy Exchange 21d ago Fit
Star Zinc 39d ago Fit
Mudamer 59d ago Fresh
The African Queen 186d ago Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.