Win £2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Nursery Handicap

Southwell (AW)

11:00

Date 2024-12-19

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 1m 15.50s (slow by 3.30s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Early Release (GB) Jordan Williams · David Evans	11/2	Won
2nd	Ballsgrove Boy (GB) Clifford Lee · Matt Crawley	25/1	0.3
3rd	Grey Operations (IRE) Laura Coughlan · Archie Watson	5/2F	1
4th	Risk (IRE) Pierre-Louis Jamin · Tom Dascombe	28/1	0.3
5th	Almasi (IRE) Joanna Mason · Michael & David Easterby	33/1	0.2
6th	Camden Flyer (IRE) Trevor Whelan · Michael Attwater	33/1	3.5
7th	Go Steelers Go (GB) Connor Planas · David Loughnane	16/1	.75
8th	Ignition (IRE) Rob Hornby · Edward Smyth-Osbourne	12/1	.75
9th	Causin A Commotion (IRE) Tom Eaves · Kevin Ryan	13/2	0.3
10th	Black Sky (IRE) Sam James · Michael & David Easterby	9/1	2.5

Non-Runners / Other

Status	Horse	SP
P.U.	Sole Spirit (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Bryan Smart	3/1

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (11)	Sole Spirit Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	131	—	068	56	64	-	43d	—	—	-14	8.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Promise on 2nd start (5f) and this may prove his trip; betting to guide on nursery debut
9 (4)	Grey Operations Bay J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Archie Watson	J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Archie Watson	129	p	008	54	64	48	48d	—	—	-15	7.7	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Shown some promise in novice company; gelded and headgear on for nursery debut; unexposed
3 (3)	Early Release Bay J:Jordan Williams(5) T:David Evans	J:Jordan Williams(5) T:David Evans	135	—	5897	60	62	37	84d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	-9	6.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Suspicion he's better than we've seen so far and interesting starting out for a new stable
11 (10)	Causin A Commotion Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	128	—	790471	53	66	59	26d	—	—	+3	13.8	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Came from off the pace to win a 5f nursery at Wolverhampton last month; 6f should suit
7 (8)	Ignition Chestnut J:Rob Hornby T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	J:Rob Hornby T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	131	—	67973	56	69	56	56d	—	—	-4	7.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Third of 12 on nursery debut here (7f) eight weeks ago; sold 21,000gns since; unexposed
8 (1)	Black Sky Bay J:Sam James T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Sam James T:Michael & David Easterby	130	b	95085	55	66	47	33d	—	—	-5	3.8	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Met some trouble when dropped to 6f at Newcastle last month; not yet exposed as a sprinter
5 (2)	Go Steelers Go Bay J:Connor Planas(3) T:David Loughnane	J:Connor Planas(3) T:David Loughnane	134	—	783	59	62	-	194d	—	—	+2	6.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Showed more at the third attempt when 3rd of 9 at Chepstow; opening mark no gift though
2 (12)	Risk Bay J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Tom Dascombe	J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Tom Dascombe	135	p	08870	60	64	39	16d	—	—	-1	3.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Didn't stay a mile on penultimate start and 5f inadequate latest; enough to prove
1 (7)	Almasi Brown J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	135	—	5640	60	63	39	62d	—	—	0	3.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Easy to back and never dangerous on stable debut nine weeks ago (5f); not a solid option
4 (6)	Camden Flyer Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Michael Attwater	J:Trevor Whelan T:Michael Attwater	135	—	05637	60	63	-	97d	—	—	+2	5.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Pulled hard when well beaten on stable debut (7f) in September; bit to prove for now
10 (5)	Ballsgrove Boy Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Matt Crawley	J:Clifford Lee T:Matt Crawley	129	—	904088	54	61	35	94d	—	—	-1	1.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Beat just one rival home in three nursery starts for Alice Haynes; risky on stable debut
NR (9)	Rumba Bay Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:David Evans	J:NON-RUNNER T:David Evans	128	—	070070	53	63	-	59d	—	—	—	0.8	—	—
Unplaced in 7 runs for D Weld prior to 1,000gns sale in October; not discounted

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Sole Spirit	10/3	3/1	3/1
Grey Operations	3/1	3/1	11/4
Early Release	11/2	9/2	5/1
Causin A Commotion	8/1	15/2	15/2
Ignition	7/1	17/2	17/2
Black Sky	9/1	10/1	10/1
Go Steelers Go	14/1	16/1	16/1
Risk	28/1	25/1	25/1
Almasi	33/1	33/1	33/1
Camden Flyer	28/1	28/1	28/1
Ballsgrove Boy	33/1	33/1	33/1
Rumba Bay	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Causin A Commotion

13.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 10 Odds: 3.1

8/1

2nd

Sole Spirit

8.2

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

10/3

3rd

Ignition

7.8

OR: 1.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

17/2

Grey Operations

7.7

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

3/1

Early Release

6.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Go Steelers Go

6.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Camden Flyer

5.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Black Sky

3.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Risk

3.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

28/1

Almasi

3.3

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Ballsgrove Boy

1.9

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Rumba Bay

0.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Early Release	60	62	37
Risk	60	64	39
Almasi	60	63	39
Camden Flyer	60	63	—
Go Steelers Go	59	62	—
Sole Spirit	56	64	—
Ignition	56	69	56
Black Sky	55	66	47
Grey Operations	54	64	48
Ballsgrove Boy	54	61	35
Causin A Commotion	53	66	59
Rumba Bay	53	63	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Risk	16d ago	Fit
Causin A Commotion	26d ago	Fit
Black Sky	33d ago	Fit
Sole Spirit	43d ago	Fit
Grey Operations	48d ago	Fresh
Ignition	56d ago	Fresh
Rumba Bay	59d ago	Fresh
Almasi	62d ago	Fresh
Early Release	84d ago	Fresh
Ballsgrove Boy	94d ago	Long break
Camden Flyer	97d ago	Long break
Go Steelers Go	194d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 6f16y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.