Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) – Ascot

Ascot

16:40

Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco)

Date 2025-10-18

Distance 1m

Class Class 2

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £103,080

Runners (20)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (8)	Native Warrior Bay J:James Doyle T:K R Burke	J:James Doyle T:K R Burke	137	v	921311	109	121	101	14d	—	—	+26	41.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Has won competitive 7f handicaps here on last two starts; should be fine now back up to 1m
13 (23)	Crown Of Oaks Bay J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	124	—	-33113	99	119	106	34d	—	—	+19	32.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Has shot up the weights but this well-bred 3yo could still have more to offer for top yard
12 (14)	Shout Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Oisin Murphy T:Simon & Ed Crisford	125	—	-23071	100	118	105	43d	—	—	+17	27.5	1.75/1	7/1 13%
His dominant C&D win came on soft but this lightly raced 3yo is still entitled to respect
6 (5)	Cerulean Bay Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	129	—	702211	101	120	107	6d	—	—	+28	36	2.25/1	9/1 10%
2 wins at Goodwood this autumn; in the form of his life and just 1lb higher than last time
5 (1)	Ebt's Guard Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	130	—	752138	102	117	113	21d	—	—	+16	23.8	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Looked better than ever prior to failing to see out 1m1f in the Cambridgeshire; e-w chance
10 (11)	Fifth Column Bay J:William Buick T:John & Thady Gosden	J:William Buick T:John & Thady Gosden	127	p	171510	102	119	105	21d	—	—	+18	24.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Merely mid-division in Cambridgeshire but this 3yo won two good handicaps in the summer
9 (4)	Arisaig Chestnut J:Jamie Spencer T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jamie Spencer T:Charlie Johnston	127	—	202533	99	119	108	22d	—	—	+15	20.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Has often run well in defeat this season and Jamie Spencer excels here; in with a chance
1 (2)	Holloway Boy Chestnut J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	138	—	6-2320	110	116	102	196d	—	—	+11	16.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Lofty mark to defy on first run since April; Group 3 winner likes it here; not ruled out
19 (10)	Tribal Chief Bay J:Sean Levey T:David Menuisier	J:Sean Levey T:David Menuisier	122	t	209610	94	119	102	21d	—	—	+14	19.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Won at Goodwood in August but well beaten in the Cambridgeshire since
15 (22)	Oliver Show Chestnut J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	124	tp	220847	96	121	95	20d	—	—	+9	13.9	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Went very close in the Lincoln and caught the eye last time; one to be interested in
16 (20)	Greek Order Bay J:Jack Callan(5) T:Michael Bell	J:Jack Callan(5) T:Michael Bell	124	p	443400	96	119	107	21d	—	—	+10	13.4	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Fourth in Royal Hunt Cup in June but first-time cheekpieces need to spark a revival
3 (19)	Godwinson Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	131	—	0-1150	103	117	91	49d	—	—	+11	14.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Won the Lincoln and followed up at Newcastle but two lesser performances have followed
8 (7)	Great Acclaim Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	128	p	711224	100	118	104	14d	—	—	+21	24.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Better than ever over 7f after blinkers went on; returns to 1m and now gets cheekpieces
20 (3)	Bopedro Bay J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	122	v	002944	94	123	105	8d	—	—	+9	13.7	6.25/1	25/1 4%
9yo who is winless since August 2023 but often runs extremely well in defeat; solid e-w
4 (18)	Witch Hunter Bay J:Joe Leavy T:Richard Hannon	J:Joe Leavy T:Richard Hannon	131	—	006761	103	117	94	20d	—	—	+21	24.1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Won at Newcastle last time and runs off a mark 6lb lower than when third in this last year
18 (13)	Bobby Bennu Grey J:Ray Dawson T:Roger Varian	J:Ray Dawson T:Roger Varian	123	h	-38255	95	120	98	42d	—	—	+11	15.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Kept on for fifth of 20 to Native Warrior over 7f here latest; others are more compelling
17 (6)	Theoryofeverything Grey J:Jason Watson T:David O'Meara	J:Jason Watson T:David O'Meara	124	t	150725	96	118	106	6d	—	—	+12	16	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Arrives in good form but all four wins have come on soft ground
14 (9)	Orandi Bay J:David Egan T:A J Martin	J:David Egan T:A J Martin	124	t	3-1339	96	117	109	76d	—	—	+11	14.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Strong form in big handicaps this season but slow ground may be preferable
7 (17)	Golden Mind Bay J:Warren Fentiman(5) T:Richard Fahey	J:Warren Fentiman(5) T:Richard Fahey	128	t	046100	100	119	105	20d	—	—	+15	18.3	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Won at Newcastle in August and effective here but not at top of his game on last two runs
11 (21)	Hafeet Alain Bay J:Ashley Lewis(5) T:Ed Walker	J:Ashley Lewis(5) T:Ed Walker	126	—	4467-1	98	117	100	142d	—	—	+20	22.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
9yo who won at Sandown on his sole run this season but has never defied a mark this high

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Native Warrior	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Crown Of Oaks	5/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	6/1
Shout	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	7/1
Cerulean Bay	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2
Ebt's Guard	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2
Fifth Column	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	14/1
Arisaig	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Holloway Boy	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	12/1
Tribal Chief	16/1	12/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Oliver Show	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Greek Order	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Godwinson	25/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Great Acclaim	25/1	22/1	22/1	20/1	20/1
Bopedro	25/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	16/1
Witch Hunter	28/1	25/1	28/1	25/1	28/1
Bobby Bennu	25/1	18/1	25/1	25/1	22/1
Theoryofeverything	28/1	25/1	28/1	28/1	20/1
Orandi	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	25/1
Golden Mind	40/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Hafeet Alain	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Native Warrior

41.7

OR: 14.8 Form: 22.5 Odds: 4.4

4/1

2nd

Cerulean Bay

OR: 12.8 Form: 21 Odds: 2.2

9/1

3rd

Crown Of Oaks

32.8

OR: 12.3 Form: 16.5 Odds: 4

6/1

Shout

27.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 11.9 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Fifth Column

24.7

OR: 13 Form: 10 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Great Acclaim

24.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 11 Odds: 1

25/1

Witch Hunter

24.1

OR: 13.3 Form: 10 Odds: 0.8

28/1

Ebt's Guard

23.8

OR: 13 Form: 8.6 Odds: 2.2

9/1

Hafeet Alain

22.6

OR: 12 Form: 10 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Arisaig

20.5

OR: 12.3 Form: 6.6 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Tribal Chief

19.6

OR: 11 Form: 7 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Golden Mind

18.3

OR: 12.5 Form: 5 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Holloway Boy

16.6

OR: 15 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Theoryofeverything

OR: 11.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1

28/1

Bobby Bennu

15.6

OR: 11.3 Form: 3.1 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Orandi

14.6

OR: 11.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1

33/1

Godwinson

14.3

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Oliver Show

13.9

OR: 11.5 Form: 1 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Bopedro

13.7

OR: 11 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Greek Order

13.4

OR: 11.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1

22/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Holloway Boy	110	116	102
Native Warrior	109	121	101
Godwinson	103	117	91
Witch Hunter	103	117	94
Ebt's Guard	102	117	113
Fifth Column	102	119	105
Cerulean Bay	101	120	107
Shout	100	118	105
Great Acclaim	100	118	104
Golden Mind	100	119	105
Crown Of Oaks	99	119	106
Arisaig	99	119	108
Hafeet Alain	98	117	100
Oliver Show	96	121	95
Greek Order	96	119	107
Theoryofeverything	96	118	106
Orandi	96	117	109
Bobby Bennu	95	120	98
Tribal Chief	94	119	102
Bopedro	94	123	105

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Cerulean Bay	6d ago	Quick return
Theoryofeverything	6d ago	Quick return
Bopedro	8d ago	Quick return
Native Warrior	14d ago	Fit
Great Acclaim	14d ago	Fit
Oliver Show	20d ago	Fit
Witch Hunter	20d ago	Fit
Golden Mind	20d ago	Fit
Ebt's Guard	21d ago	Fit
Fifth Column	21d ago	Fit
Tribal Chief	21d ago	Fit
Greek Order	21d ago	Fit
Arisaig	22d ago	Fit
Crown Of Oaks	34d ago	Fit
Bobby Bennu	42d ago	Fit
Shout	43d ago	Fit
Godwinson	49d ago	Fresh
Orandi	76d ago	Fresh
Hafeet Alain	142d ago	Long break
Holloway Boy	196d ago	Long break