Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:40

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap

Date 2024-11-07

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (10)	Barleybrown Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Ruth Carr	J:Billy Loughnane T:Ruth Carr	137	—	491312	67	77	55	9d	—	—	+4	28	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Four C&D wins for R Carr this year; good 2nd last week; up in weights but improving
4 (5)	Mercurius Power Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	134	tp	441943	64	79	68	10d	—	—	-3	14.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Unlucky in running when 3rd at Southwell ten days ago; strong claims off the same mark
8 (1)	Falcon Nine Chestnut J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Fellowes	133	—	797827	63	78	61	29d	—	—	-2	10.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
13-race maiden; not at his best last time and others look more persuasive
7 (9)	Jewel Maker Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	133	—	436472	63	77	53	16d	—	—	0	12.5	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Chased home Barleybrown here 16 days ago and 7lb better off today; each-way claims
6 (2)	Alpine Sierra Brown J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	134	—	069423	64	77	53	16d	—	—	+3	12.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Yet to win this year but has threatened, including C&D latest; each-way shout
9 (7)	Unreal Connection Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	132	—	426326	64	76	58	15d	—	—	+1	12.8	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Infrequent winner for A Perrrett but has the ability to go well on her stable debut
1 (4)	Golspie Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Patrick Morris	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Patrick Morris	139	p	6-3045	69	75	51	12d	0W/0P 1 run	—	-3	7.6	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Edging down the weights while retaining ability; not discounted at this level
2 (6)	Cusack Bay J:Jonny Peate T:David Thompson	J:Jonny Peate T:David Thompson	138	p	350088	68	75	72	9d	—	—	0	6.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
On a dangerous mark if two runs last month have sharpened him up; betting useful
5 (8)	Pallas Lord Bay J:Shay Farmer(7) T:Donald Whillans	J:Shay Farmer(7) T:Donald Whillans	134	—	421299	64	73	64	20d	—	—	+8	10.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
In fine form here early in the year but not shone in two runs back from a summer break
10 (3)	Sandret Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Ben Haslam	J:Andrew Mullen T:Ben Haslam	129	—	8-8366	59	74	42	72d	—	—	+1	2.7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
C&D win off 8lb higher in 2022; quiet this year and others are stronger

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Barleybrown	5/2	5/2	5/2
Mercurius Power	9/2	4/1	9/2
Falcon Nine	6/1	6/1	6/1
Jewel Maker	13/2	6/1	6/1
Alpine Sierra	17/2	17/2	17/2
Unreal Connection	10/1	10/1	9/1
Golspie	10/1	10/1	10/1
Cusack	18/1	14/1	16/1
Pallas Lord	28/1	28/1	28/1
Sandret	40/1	50/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Barleybrown

OR: 4.3 Form: 16.5 Odds: 7.3

5/2

2nd

Mercurius Power

14.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 6 Odds: 5.2

9/2

3rd

Unreal Connection

12.8

OR: 3.5 Form: 6 Odds: 3.3

10/1

Alpine Sierra

12.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Jewel Maker

12.5

OR: 3.3 Form: 5.6 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Pallas Lord

10.9

OR: 3.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Falcon Nine

10.4

OR: 3.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Golspie

7.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

10/1

Cusack

6.1

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Sandret

2.7

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Golspie	69	75	51
Cusack	68	75	72
Barleybrown	67	77	55
Mercurius Power	64	79	68
Alpine Sierra	64	77	53
Unreal Connection	64	76	58
Pallas Lord	64	73	64
Falcon Nine	63	78	61
Jewel Maker	63	77	53
Sandret	59	74	42

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Barleybrown	9d ago	Quick return
Cusack	9d ago	Quick return
Mercurius Power	10d ago	Quick return
Golspie	12d ago	Quick return
Unreal Connection	15d ago	Fit
Jewel Maker	16d ago	Fit
Alpine Sierra	16d ago	Fit
Pallas Lord	20d ago	Fit
Falcon Nine	29d ago	Fit
Sandret	72d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.