Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

14:30

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-11-03

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
NR (6)	Beach Point Brown J:NON-RUNNER T:William Knight	J:NON-RUNNER T:William Knight	133	—	807	58	-	-	18d	—	—	-52	22	—	—
Brought along steadily, 7th at Yarmouth latest; well worth considering now handicapping
NR (5)	Mulciber Bay J:TBC T:Marco Botti	J: T:Marco Botti	131	t	056	56	66	37	27d	—	—	-21	11.9	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Step forward when sixth at Newmarket; player on his nursery debut back at 1m
3 (3)	Gregorina Grey J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	133	p	434	58	70	33	15d	—	—	-11	10.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Twice in the frame before well-held fourth on soft at Brighton; remains with potential
1 (11)	Terratino Fire Bay J:Brandon Wilkie(7) T:Hugo Palmer	J:Brandon Wilkie(7) T:Hugo Palmer	137	p	589	62	65	30	27d	—	—	-6	6.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Twice failed to build on his debut fifth at Chester; cheekpieces on for his nursery debut
11 (2)	Eagle Landed Bay J:Adam Farragher(3) T:John Butler	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:John Butler	120	—	07098	45	61	27	56d	—	—	-13	5.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Well held in 7f nurseries at Leicester/Kempton on last two runs; hard to make a case for
9 (4)	Too Much Too Young Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:William Pyle(5) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	120	—	0673	45	62	-	37d	—	—	-3	5.4	2.25/1	10 10%
Took a step forward on handicap debut with Redcar third; not discounted on Tapeta debut
4 (8)	Likeashadow Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alan Brown	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alan Brown	132	—	90681	57	67	29	17d	—	—	-14	24.3	0.31/1	5/4 44%
Confirmed earlier promise to land nursery here 17 days ago; up 3lb but not taken lightly
6 (7)	King Of Cali Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jason Hart T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	126	p	97879	51	67	17	17d	—	—	-2	1.1	6.75/1	28 4%
Only ninth switched to Handicap here 17 days ago; cheekpieces on with something to prove
10 (9)	Renewable Queen Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	120	—	800	45	61	-	34d	—	—	-3	1	6.00/1	25 4%
Has cut little ice in three novices thus far; needs a big step forward now handicapping
8 (10)	Factorforfurniture Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	123	p	0078	48	68	-	17d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Only eighth on nursery debut at Leicester 17 days ago; cheekpieces on for his Tapeta debut
7 (1)	Red Iris Grey J:Tom Eaves T:Tim Easterby	J:Tom Eaves T:Tim Easterby	124	—	87067	49	68	20	17d	—	—	-2	0.6	9.75/1	40 3%
Not disgraced when seventh in nursery here latest; no forlorn hope off a falling mark

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Beach Point	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Mulciber	5/2	5/2	9/4	9/4	9/4
Gregorina	7/2	7/2	3	10/3	7/2
Terratino Fire	11/2	6	6	11/2	6/1
Eagle Landed	6	5	5	9/2	11/2
Too Much Too Young	10	9	10	8	9
Likeashadow	5/4	11/10	6/5	5/4	5/4
King Of Cali	28	28	28	25	28
Renewable Queen	20	22	25	22	22
Factorforfurniture	33	28	28	28	28
Red Iris	40	40	40	40	40

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Likeashadow

24.3

OR: 1.8 Form: 10 Odds: 12.5

5/4

2nd

Beach Point

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 20

—

3rd

Mulciber

11.9

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 10.4

5/2

Gregorina

10.3

OR: 2 Form: 2.1 Odds: 6.2

7/2

Terratino Fire

6.6

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Too Much Too Young

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 2.4

Eagle Landed

5.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

11/2

King Of Cali

1.1

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Renewable Queen

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Factorforfurniture

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Red Iris

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Terratino Fire	62	65	30
Beach Point	58	—	—
Gregorina	58	70	33
Likeashadow	57	67	29
Mulciber	56	66	37
King Of Cali	51	67	17
Red Iris	49	68	20
Factorforfurniture	48	68	—
Eagle Landed	45	61	27
Too Much Too Young	45	62	—
Renewable Queen	45	61	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Gregorina	15d ago	Fit
Likeashadow	17d ago	Fit
King Of Cali	17d ago	Fit
Factorforfurniture	17d ago	Fit
Red Iris	17d ago	Fit
Beach Point	18d ago	Fit
Mulciber	27d ago	Fit
Terratino Fire	27d ago	Fit
Renewable Queen	34d ago	Fit
Too Much Too Young	37d ago	Fit
Eagle Landed	56d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.