Always Gamble Responsibly With BetUK Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:45

Always Gamble Responsibly With BetUK Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-11-03

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (4)	Elliott Bay J:Archie Young(7) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Archie Young(7) T:Rebecca Menzies	139	—	656331	64	64	47	10d	—	—	+2	23.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Not well-in under penalty (4lb lower from tomorrow) but Archie Young knocks off 7lb
3 (3)	Arlington Chestnut J:Graham Lee T:Bryan Smart	J:Graham Lee T:Bryan Smart	135	—	377	60	63	-	44d	—	—	-9	9.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Best judged on his first two efforts and would hold each-way claims on those
2 (1)	Torvar Chestnut J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	135	p	655435	60	69	53	14d	—	—	-8	9.6	0.75/1	4 25%
Exposed maiden; no excuses at a short price here a fortnight ago and now back over 5f
4 (2)	Profit Street Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	132	—	450	57	61	-	23d	—	0W/1P 1 run	-10	6.8	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Big prices and well held in three runs on turf; trainer is 0-87 with 2yos this year
5 (7)	Stoneacre Girl Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	132	p	0966	57	65	46	14d	—	—	-5	4.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Offered more on her C&D nursery debut behind Elliott latest; one to consider
6 (10)	She'Sashambles Bay J:Shane Gray T:Phillip Makin	J:Shane Gray T:Phillip Makin	130	—	4407	55	65	45	14d	—	—	-5	3.8	2.25/1	10 10%
Better on her C&D nursery debut recently behind Elliott, albeit they finished in a heap
7 (9)	Mehigburn Bay J:Sam James T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Sam James T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	129	—	656859	54	66	67	14d	—	—	-4	2.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Exposed maiden who again finished well held on his first start since being gelded latest
9 (6)	Musical Diva Bay J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	125	v	056588	50	68	24	31d	—	—	-2	0.9	9.75/1	40 3%
Exposed maiden who's continued to struggle since handicapping (two forms of headgear)
11 (11)	Caradonna Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	120	—	008	45	36	-	16d	—	—	-1	0.5	19.75/1	80 1%
Huge prices and well beaten in three runs on turf; can't be backed
10 (5)	Spin Off Bay J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	120	—	000	45	52	-	38d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Huge prices and well beaten in three runs on turf; trainer 0-43 with 2yos this season
NR (8)	Lotting's Lass Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:John Quinn	J:NON-RUNNER T:John Quinn	126	—	665135	51	-	-	14d	—	—	—	7.4	—	—
Has run to a similar level in defeat since her win and looks set to go well once more

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Elliott	3	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Arlington	4	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Torvar	4	4	4	4	4
Profit Street	4	4	7/2	4	4
Stoneacre Girl	8	15/2	8	8	8
She'Sashambles	17/2	9	10	10	9
Mehigburn	14	14	14	14	12
Musical Diva	40	33	33	33	33
Caradonna	80	66	66	80	66
Spin Off	100	80	80	100	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Elliott

23.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 13.6 Odds: 6.2

7/2

2nd

Torvar

9.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5

3rd

Arlington

9.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Lotting's Lass

7.4

OR: 0.3 Form: 7.1 Odds: 0

—

Profit Street

6.8

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5

7/2

Stoneacre Girl

4.3

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

15/2

She'Sashambles

3.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

Mehigburn

2.7

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Musical Diva

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Caradonna

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Spin Off

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Elliott	64	64	47
Arlington	60	63	—
Torvar	60	69	53
Profit Street	57	61	—
Stoneacre Girl	57	65	46
She'Sashambles	55	65	45
Mehigburn	54	66	67
Lotting's Lass	51	—	—
Musical Diva	50	68	24
Caradonna	45	36	—
Spin Off	45	52	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Elliott	10d ago	Quick return
Torvar	14d ago	Fit
Stoneacre Girl	14d ago	Fit
She'Sashambles	14d ago	Fit
Mehigburn	14d ago	Fit
Lotting's Lass	14d ago	Fit
Caradonna	16d ago	Fit
Profit Street	23d ago	Fit
Musical Diva	31d ago	Fit
Spin Off	38d ago	Fit
Arlington	44d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.