Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:15

Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap

Date 2023-11-03

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 28.20s (slow by 4.40s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Key Look (IRE) Sam James · Geoffrey Harker	8/1	Won
2nd	Dr Rio (FR) Graham Lee · Paul Midgley	18/1	0.3
3rd	Absolute Dream (IRE) Ethan Tindall · Richard Fahey	28/1	.75
4th	Bobby Joe Leg (GB) Joanna Mason · Ruth Carr	5/1	0.3
5th	Violeta (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Ben Haslam	100/30F	0.1
6th	Angel Amadea (GB) Cam Hardie · Rebecca Menzies	16/1	1.5
7th	Pallas Lord (IRE) Jason Hart · Donald Whillans	9/2	0.3
8th	Kodebreaker (IRE) Tom Eaves · Michael Herrington	5/1	.5
9th	Rogue Force (IRE) P J McDonald · R Mike Smith	12/1	3
10th	Blame The Farrier (IRE) Ryan Sexton · David Thompson	9/1	4
11th	Child Of Lir (IRE) Archie Young · Rebecca Menzies	66/1	6
12th	Flaming O'Hara (IRE) Zak Wheatley · Declan Carroll	100/1	21

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (8)	Violeta Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	134	p	374579	58	71	33	14d	—	—	-10	7	0.75/1	4 25%
Well treated on her spring efforts here if the first-time headgear brings her back to form
6 (7)	Pallas Lord Bay J:Jason Hart T:Donald Whillans	J:Jason Hart T:Donald Whillans	133	—	220587	56	76	46	18d	—	—	-10	7.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Expensive to follow early in the year, mainly over further; the return here should help
5 (11)	Kodebreaker Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	134	—	425543	57	70	43	37d	—	—	-3	9.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Does seem happiest round Southwelll; arrives in good form but has become hard to win with
1 (4)	Bobby Joe Leg Chestnut J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	135	—	023658	58	74	65	14d	—	—	-5	7.2	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Won this last year; this is easier than the handicaps he's contested lately; expect better
8 (10)	Blame The Farrier Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:David Thompson	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:David Thompson	133	—	636902	56	69	20	35d	—	—	-1	10.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Much better from the front over C&D last time and that gave something to build on
11 (9)	Key Look Chestnut J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	127	hp	4-0777	50	74	35	114d	—	—	-8	3.3	1.75/1	8 13%
Switch back to her old yard and a new headgear combination may help
7 (5)	Rogue Force Bay J:P J McDonald T:R Mike Smith	J:P J McDonald T:R Mike Smith	133	—	993936	56	79	-	22d	—	—	-1	6.7	2.00/1	9 11%
Been showing enough on soft/heavy turf to suggest he's worth considering back on the AW
9 (2)	Angel Amadea Grey J:Cam Hardie T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Cam Hardie T:Rebecca Menzies	131	t	188803	54	72	62	35d	—	—	-2	6.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Unlucky not to finish closer behind Blame The Farrier latest; one of the likelier winners
4 (1)	Dr Rio Bay J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	134	h	684120	57	72	33	67d	—	—	+6	11.9	4.75/1	20 5%
Done most racing over further and wants a good test over this trip; others stronger
2 (12)	Absolute Dream Chestnut J:Ethan Tindall(7) T:Richard Fahey	J:Ethan Tindall(7) T:Richard Fahey	135	—	807100	58	74	32	24d	—	—	+5	7.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Most wins have come in the second half of the year but he's become wildly inconsistent
10 (6)	Child Of Lir Bay J:Archie Young(7) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Archie Young(7) T:Rebecca Menzies	131	v	237610	55	70	23	—	—	—	+6	9.7	9.75/1	40 3%
Shortest trip to date is a concern, switched to a visor; yard also saddle Angel Amadea
12 (3)	Flaming O'Hara Chestnut J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	125	—	5-9000	49	68	-	65d	—	—	-2	0.6	19.75/1	80 1%
String of awful efforts for Dermot Weld in the summer; is hard to recommend

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Violeta	4	4	4	4	4
Pallas Lord	4	4	7/2	4	4
Kodebreaker	11/2	5	5	11/2	5
Bobby Joe Leg	13/2	6	11/2	13/2	6
Blame The Farrier	7	15/2	8	15/2	7
Key Look	8	8	8	8	7
Rogue Force	9	9	9	9	9
Angel Amadea	12	12	11	12	14
Dr Rio	18	16	12	18/1	20
Absolute Dream	28	28	25	28	33
Child Of Lir	40	40	33	40	40
Flaming O'Hara	66	66	40	66	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dr Rio

11.9

OR: 1.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.6

2nd

Blame The Farrier

10.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 3.3

15/2

3rd

Child Of Lir

9.7

OR: 1.3 Form: 7.6 Odds: 0.9

Kodebreaker

9.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 4 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Absolute Dream

7.8

OR: 2 Form: 5 Odds: 0.8

Pallas Lord

7.5

OR: 1.5 Form: 1 Odds: 5

7/2

Bobby Joe Leg

7.2

OR: 2 Form: 1.9 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Violeta

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 5

Rogue Force

6.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 3 Odds: 2.2

Angel Amadea

6.1

OR: 1 Form: 3 Odds: 2.1

Key Look

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

Flaming O'Hara

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Violeta	58	71	33
Bobby Joe Leg	58	74	65
Absolute Dream	58	74	32
Kodebreaker	57	70	43
Dr Rio	57	72	33
Pallas Lord	56	76	46
Blame The Farrier	56	69	20
Rogue Force	56	79	—
Child Of Lir	55	70	23
Angel Amadea	54	72	62
Key Look	50	74	35
Flaming O'Hara	49	68	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Violeta	14d ago	Fit
Bobby Joe Leg	14d ago	Fit
Pallas Lord	18d ago	Fit
Rogue Force	22d ago	Fit
Absolute Dream	24d ago	Fit
Blame The Farrier	35d ago	Fit
Angel Amadea	35d ago	Fit
Kodebreaker	37d ago	Fit
Flaming O'Hara	65d ago	Fresh
Dr Rio	67d ago	Fresh
Key Look	114d ago	Long break
Child Of Lir	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.