Meetings & Events Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:00

Meetings & Events Handicap

Date 2024-10-04

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,972

Winning Time 1m 37.68s (slow by 0.68s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Baraq (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	7/2F	Won
2nd	Nikovo (GB) Callum Rodriguez · David O'Meara	13/2	.5
3rd	Gincident (IRE) Connor Murtagh · Richard Fahey	33/1	2.25
4th	Master Richard (GB) David Allan · Ann Duffield	7/1	0.2
5th	Sniper's Eye (FR) Callum Shepherd · David Simcock	4/1	0.2
6th	Great Max (IRE) Daniel Tudhope · David O'Meara	16/1	4
7th	Yokohama (IRE) Kaiya Fraser · John Butler	16/1	1
8th	Light Speed (IRE) Joanna Mason · Gemma Tutty	8/1	2.25
9th	Theme Park (GB) Faye McManoman · Nigel Tinkler	14/1	0.05
10th	Greatgadian (GER) Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian	6/1	1.75
11th	Hale End (IRE) Sean Kirrane · Michael Dods	16/1	3.25
12th	Master Zoffany (IRE) Harry Russell · Richard Fahey	40/1	59

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (12)	Baraq Grey J:Paul Mulrennan T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	134	—	-23821	85	94	78	8d	—	—	+11	29.6	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Won a Southwell novice easily and 2lb well in under penalty, but last in only handicap run
9 (4)	Sniper's Eye Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	132	—	1-6631	80	93	42	17d	—	—	+5	18.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Southwell winner a year ago and won on turf last time, but may need further than this now
2 (9)	Greatgadian Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	137	—	220050	85	98	77	27d	—	—	0	13.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Winner once and runner-up three times in five visits here; dangerous off this mark
1 (6)	Nikovo Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:David O'Meara	J:Callum Rodriguez T:David O'Meara	137	—	131465	85	95	78	43d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	+4	15.4	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Three wins earlier this year including over C&D, but still 8lb above his last winning mark
5 (7)	Master Richard Bay J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	135	—	057744	83	98	78	36d	—	—	0	11.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
4lb lower than for his last win over 7f here; other wins have come over 1m; could go well
11 (10)	Light Speed Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Gemma Tutty	J:Joanna Mason T:Gemma Tutty	131	—	907149	79	95	-	15d	—	—	+5	14.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Won three times on the AW late last year; met plenty of trouble last time; each-way claims
6 (8)	Yokohama Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:John Butler	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:John Butler	134	—	1-5694	85	92	76	105d	—	—	+10	17.9	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Won here as a 2yo; some stiff task this year and remains unexposed; watch market
3 (5)	Theme Park Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	137	—	051581	85	94	-	15d	—	—	+16	23.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Has won two of his last four starts on turf, but well beaten in one previous visit here
4 (11)	Great Max Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	137	—	477110	85	94	69	36d	—	—	+17	22.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Won twice on turf in August but modest in three starts on AW; still has stamina to prove
8 (1)	Hale End Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	132	p	101528	80	96	-	15d	—	—	+10	15.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
9lb higher than when winning over C&D in January so will need to have improved generally
10 (3)	Gincident Bay J:Connor Murtagh T:Richard Fahey	J:Connor Murtagh T:Richard Fahey	132	h	520629	80	94	73	112d	—	—	+10	12.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
C&D winner, but has become inconsistent and may need the run; hood on
12 (2)	Master Zoffany Bay J:Harry Russell T:Richard Fahey	J:Harry Russell T:Richard Fahey	130	—	070306	78	97	49	21d	—	—	+7	9.2	12.50/1	50/1 2%
8lb lower than his win here last December but doubts over whether he can take advantage

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Baraq	7/2	4/1	7/2	7/2	4/1
Sniper's Eye	5/1	11/2	5/1	5/1	11/2
Greatgadian	6/1	6/1	6/1	11/2	11/2
Nikovo	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Master Richard	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Light Speed	8/1	8/1	8/1	15/2	8/1
Yokohama	10/1	10/1	10/1	11/1	10/1
Theme Park	11/1	11/1	11/1	12/1	11/1
Great Max	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Hale End	18/1	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Gincident	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Master Zoffany	50/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Baraq

29.6

OR: 8.8 Form: 15.4 Odds: 5.4

4/1

2nd

Theme Park

23.9

OR: 8.8 Form: 13 Odds: 2.1

12/1

3rd

Great Max

22.4

OR: 8.8 Form: 12 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Sniper's Eye

18.1

OR: 7.5 Form: 7 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Yokohama

17.9

OR: 8.8 Form: 7 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Nikovo

15.4

OR: 8.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Hale End

15.4

OR: 7.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Light Speed

14.9

OR: 7.3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Greatgadian

13.8

OR: 8.8 Form: 1 Odds: 4

6/1

Gincident

12.9

OR: 7.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Master Richard

11.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Master Zoffany

9.2

OR: 7 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Baraq	85	94	78
Greatgadian	85	98	77
Nikovo	85	95	78
Yokohama	85	92	76
Theme Park	85	94	—
Great Max	85	94	69
Master Richard	83	98	78
Sniper's Eye	80	93	42
Hale End	80	96	—
Gincident	80	94	73
Light Speed	79	95	—
Master Zoffany	78	97	49

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Baraq	8d ago	Quick return
Light Speed	15d ago	Fit
Theme Park	15d ago	Fit
Hale End	15d ago	Fit
Sniper's Eye	17d ago	Fit
Master Zoffany	21d ago	Fit
Greatgadian	27d ago	Fit
Master Richard	36d ago	Fit
Great Max	36d ago	Fit
Nikovo	43d ago	Fit
Yokohama	105d ago	Long break
Gincident	112d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.